HT
IRANIAN BLOGERS IN JAIL (DEMOCRACY FOR IRAN)
As said before RBT does not usually post entire articles. Since this is an OP/ED piece of interest to the Iranian people, I'm posting it here in case the original site is blocked.
RBT
*****
ContraCostaTimes.Com
Posted on Sat, Mar. 04, 2006
GUEST COMMENTARY
Iranian people frustrated with government
By OMID MEMARIAN
FROM THE ACADEMIC COMMUNITY
"No to the West, no to the East, Iran"
One of the best-known Iranian revolutionary slogans is about to come true. The International Atomic Energy Agency, in a 27-3 vote, has referred Iran's case to the U.N. Security Council and will decide on it soon.
Even the support of supposed allies China and Russia seems in doubt.
Iran now finds itself isolated and there is no way for them unless supporting the Russian proposal. If not, the possible scenarios at the Security Council will be more and more hurtful.
Despite being backed into a corner, Iran's hard-line government still presents itself as invulnerable to potential sanctions or military attack.
Iranian officials warn the consequences of such a response could include an increase in the price of oil, destabilization of the Middle East peace process, and retaliation by their Shi'ite allies in Iraq.
They speak of a "Bermuda Triangle" of allies -- a network ranging from Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the Badr Brigade in Iraq to Hamas in Palestine.
Some of Iran's ultra conservatives warn that an attack on their country could spark World War III. But domestic crises and foreign policy failures mean Iran's bark may be worse than its bite.
Inside the country, people are frustrated by the Ahmadinejad government. Neither Iran's middle class, nor its intellectuals, nor its upper class supported him in last June's election. Even his mostly lower-class backers dislike the new president's adventurism.
They are impatiently awaiting his promised economic changes, and potential sanctions threaten to obliterate those dreams. Still, the government is using its propaganda machine to try to convince the international community that the people of Iran demand nuclear power.
They also are trying to convince the Iranian people that this is a matter of national pride. So far, only hardcore conservatives have bought this line.
Between being labeled part of the "axis of evil," two decades of economic decline, and marginalization from the rest of the world, not to mention the revolution and 8 years of war with Iraq (1980-1988), even the most patriotic Iranians are wary of further conflict.
That's why the antiwar movement, both in Iran and among expatriots, is weak.
In the buildup to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, they never protested the war, despite their government's strong anti-war stance.
In early January, fewer than forty people attended an San Francisco anti-war meeting held by a group campaigning against sanctions and intervention against Iran.
While a month earlier, in Berkeley, 400 people paid $25 each to watch a Farsi-speaking stand-up comic. Inside Iran, the anti-war movement is far weaker.
Last year, some Iranian journalists and activists established a weblog opposing any kind of intervention in Iran.
I was one of the contributors writing from inside the country. I pointed out how many Iranians dislike the idea of any international intervention.
I received dozens of comments criticizing my stance. Other contributors received similar comments. It's not hard to understand the roots of this anger.
Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under the age of 29. In a survey last year, the government-run National Youth Organization found young people are facing three main social crises: sexual repression, unemployment, and drug use.
The level of frustration is astronomical, and because of this, the study found, 55 percent of Iranian youth have contemplated suicide at least once.
Moreover Iranian people feel that political change won't bring about tangible economic or social improvements.
As a result, society has become depoliticized and passive about political debates.
Whereas, more than 80 percent of voters participated in the 1998 presidential election, which brought Khatami to the power, that number dropped to 30 percent in the last parliamentary election and just 20 percent in a local election in Tehran six years later.
Voters trusted President Khatami to bring about real changes in society and their everyday lives. But that didn't happen.
This situation has put Iranian ultra conservatives in a fragile situation. Insisting on nuclear enrichment would take Iranians to the point of no return.
Sanctions, which would inevitably harm ordinary people, would be just the beginning.
Furthermore, talking about retaliation would mean political suicide for the fundamentalist government and for the country as a whole.
All they need to do is to look at what happened to Saddam Hussein destiny.
That's why many reformists and intellectuals believe the Islamic regime must do whatever they can to avoid being penalized by the Security Council in early March and to earn the trust of the international community.
If the regime doesn't, this will be the last chance for Iran.
Memarian, an Iranian journalist and blogger, is a visiting scholar at UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism.