HT Stratfor via Tactical@yahoogroups.com

Special Report: Why Hezbollah Fights
July 22, 2006 20 32 GMT

To understand Hezbollah, it is important to begin with this point: Almost all Muslim Arabs opposed the creation of the state of Israel. Not all of them supported, or support today, the creation of an independent Palestinian state or recognize the Palestinian people as a distinct nation. This is a vital and usually overlooked distinction that is the starting point in our thinking.

[...]

Hezbollah is enabled by both Syria and Iran. But precisely because of both national and ideological differences between those two countries, Hezbollah is not simply a tool for them. They each have influence over Hezbollah but this influence is sometimes contradictory. Syria's interests and Iran's are never quite the same. Nor are Hezbollah's interests quite the same as those of its patrons. Hezbollah has business interests in legal and illegal businesses around the world. It has interests within Lebanese politics and it has interests in Palestinian politics. As a Syrian client, it looks at the region as one entity. As an Iranian client, it looks to create a theocratic state in the region. As an entity in its own right, it must keep itself going.

[...]

n our view, Hezbollah has three military goals in this battle:

1. Fight the most effective defensive battle ever fought against Israel by an Arab army, surpassing the performance of Egypt and Syria in 1973.

2. Inflict direct and substantial damage on Israel proper using conventional weapons in order to demonstrate the limits of Israeli power.

3. Draw Israel into an invasion of Lebanon and, following resistance, move to an insurgency that does to the Israelis what the Sunnis in Iraq have done to the Americans.

[...]

What Hezbollah wants is political power in Lebanon and among the Palestinians, and freedom for action within the context of Syrian-Iranian relations. This war will cost it dearly, but it has been preparing for this for a generation. Some of the old guard may not have the stomach for this, but it was either this or be pushed aside by the younger bloods. Syria wanted to see this happen. Iran wanted to see this happen. Iran risks nothing. Syria risks little since Israel is terrified of the successor regime to the Assads. So long as Syria limits resupply and does not intervene, Israel must leave Damascus out.

Looked at from Hezbollah's point of view, taking the fight to the Israelis is something that has not happened in quite a while. Hezbollah's hitting of Haifa gives it the position it has sought for a generation. If it can avoid utter calamity, it will have won -- if not by defeating Israel, then by putting itself first among the anti-Israeli forces. What Hezbollah wants in Israel is much less clear and important than what it opposes. It opposes Israel and is the most effective force fighting it.

Fatah and Hamas are now bystanders in the battle for Israel. They have no love for or trust in Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is doing what they have only talked about. Israel's mission is to crush Hezbollah quickly. Hezbollah's job is to survive and hurt Israel and the IDF as long as possible. That is what this war is about for Hezbollah.

Read it All

SCROLL FOR UPDATES

HT The American Thinker

Well RBT has been saying this for a long time. While President MAD and his religious mentor, Immam Yazdi, may appear mad from our Western frame of reference, from their own sense of reality, their actions are completely rational and logical.

President MAD and Immam Yazdi are consolidating their power base by replacing key governmental positions with their own followers. The less extreme Mullahs, an oxymoron if there was ever one, are being edge out of power.

President Mad and Immam Yazdi are "Twelfers" who believe they can hasten the return of the 12th Immam to the mortal world. The 12th Immam will rid the world of the infidels [all of us nonbelievers who fail to convert to Islam].

These fanatical folks are no different than our own homegrown fanatical cultist sects e.g., David Koresch and the Branch Davidians (Waco, TX - Disavowed sect of the SDAs), and Jim Jones and the Kool-Aid Bunch. The only difference is the Islamofascist madness is fueled by petrol dollars both Shi'ia and Sunni alike.

Further President MAD's diplomatic letters are viewed by some Islamic experts as a prelude to war. If the infidels fail to heed the opportunity to convert than a "defensive" war is fair game.

The President MAD has said they will reply to the EUs demand to stop enriching uranium on August 22nd. As Atlas of Atlas Shrugs pointed out this date has special meaning in the World of Islam that we should take note.

The Achilles heel of these totalitarian regimes is the free flow of information and the truth. Once their followers realize these visions are flawed and that Islamofascism is a fundamentally flawed ideology, these fanatics will lose their support and control of the people.

Go Blogosphere! As President Reagan said in starring down another totalitarian regime:

. . . In the 1950s, Khrushchev predicted: "We will bury you." But in the West today, we see a free world that has achieved a level of prosperity and well-being unprecedented in all human history. In the Communist world, we see failure, technological backwardness, declining standards of health, even want of the most basic kind--too little food. Even today, the Soviet Union still cannot feed itself. After these four decades, then, there stands before the entire world one great and inescapable conclusion: Freedom leads to prosperity. Freedom replaces the ancient hatreds among the nations with comity and peace. Freedom is the victor.

[...]

Are these the beginnings of profound changes in the Soviet state? Or are they token gestures, intended to raise false hopes in the West, or to strengthen the Soviet system without changing it? We welcome change and openness; for we believe that freedom and security go together, that the advance of human liberty can only strengthen the cause of world peace. There is one sign the Soviets can make that would be unmistakable, that would advance dramatically the cause of freedom and peace.

General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

RBT

*****

Evidence Accumulates that Ahmadinejad Really is Insane
July 22nd, 2006

The biggest foreign policy question today is whether the President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is really as utterly irrational as he talks. When he calls for wiping Israel from the map, is he serious? When he talks about privately communing with the Twelfth Imam, and of the Second Coming complete with Armageddon, is this guy for real? Does he understand that the Israelis can wipe him out with 200 real nukes if they are ever driven to that extreme?

Rush Limbaugh at one time speculated that Ahmadinejad threatens the world to drive up the prices of oil to fatten his budget. Others think it’s all an act, to intimidate other countries in the neighborhood.

Well, now we know. Ahmadinejad just sent a letter to German Chancellor Merkel, apparently trying to persuade her to help him wrap up Hitler’s unfortunately failed effort at a Final Solution to the Jewish Problem.

Read More

Update:

HT Sam Pender sent this link to an excellent news video clip on President MAD's Messanic vision that is shaking up Iran (hosted at The Intelligence Summit].

This is as if Tony Blair said that, ". . .Britain should be preparing for the second coming of Jesus . . ." :

Iranian President and the Coming of His Messiah

Update II:

HT Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran

Michael Ledeen has this must read eye threading piece that puts these moves into perspective at NRO:

A Window of Opportunity

9/11 happened when Osama bin Laden looked at us, and thought we were ready to be had. We were politically divided, and squabbling over everything. We clearly were not prepared to take casualties in direct combat. The newly elected president seemed unable to make a tough decision. And so Osama attacked, expecting to deliver a decisive blow to our national will, expecting we would turn tail and run, as we had in Somalia, and expecting he would then be free to concentrate his energies on the defeat of local apostates, the creation of his caliphate, and the organization of Muslim revenge for the catastrophes of past centuries.

[...]

inally, there was the Divine Message, the promise that the End of Days would soon be upon mankind, and the Hidden Imam would emerge from the bottom of his well, lead the believers to victory, and command the planet. The description of the moment of his return was well known: a time of chaos and suffering, that could be accelerated by the faithful if they were brave enough.

[...]

It now lies to President Bush to decide. We must hope that he is not charmed. If he can now recall what he said after 9/11, that the world must make the stark choice of being with us or against us, and that those who support the terrorists will be treated as terrorists themselves, then the deadly logic of their failed attack will close around the throats of the terror masters. The battle against Hezbollah is part of the broader war, as the mullahs well understood when they unleashed Nasrallah and Mughniyah against the Israelis. Israel is now conducting that battle; it is up to us to prosecute the rest of the war.

[...]

Now is the time to tell our soldiers in Iraq that “hot pursuit” is okay, that the terrorist training camps on both sides of Iraq are legitimate targets, to be attacked in self-defense. Now is the time to tell the Iraqi government to come forward with the abundant evidence of Iranian evil-doing, and that we will support a fight against the mullahs’ foot soldiers in Iraq. These actions will signal the next stage of the war against the terror masters, which is the vigorous support of the pro-democracy forces in Syria and Iran.

It is a wondrous window of opportunity. As so often in our history, it was opened by our enemies. Let’s go for it.

Now, please. It may not open again for quite a while.

A MUST READ!

Update III:

HT Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran

See this and other related threads at Regime Change Iran:

Iranians want to know the truth and the West provides "balanced reporting."

* The Washington Times reported that young Iranians are turning increasingly to the Internet to voice their dissatisfaction with a hard-line regime and argued that the United States could make better use of blogs, satellite television, radio and other means to communicate information that the regime withholds from its public.

[...]

Read More

Scroll below for Updates

HT The Volokh Conspiracy via Instapundit

More info on what the MSM is not covering. The Israelis are doing more damage to Hezbollah then is generally reported. Also with the US now in Iraq the strategic geopolitical climate has shifted. With Saddam still in power the Arab states probably would not be "winking/nodding" on the Israelis tearing up Hezbollah.

Mind you Hezbollah is Shi'ia and back by the Iranians who are Shi'ia too. The other Arab states, largely Sunni, and now that Saddam is out of the picture are very nervous about the Iranian led Shi'ia moving into the power vacuum. Especially, with their quest to hasten the return of the 12th Imman perhaps with the use of nuclear weapons to bring on Armageddon.

OK - so no WMD found in Iraq ;-) (Fat lady hasn't sung yet on this though)

See the pieces below re a more global view of the GWOT. Read why it was so important strategically that the US took out Saddam when we did in the GWOT.

The Mad Mullahs of Iran are now in a vise between the Western forces in Afgan and Iraq and the Kurdish populations to the north. The Arab states in the region are not backing the Iranian and Syrian moves in Lebanon and Gaza.

Perhaps this was the strategic plan of Sharon all along. Give a mouse a cookie and next they'll want milk too!

The Israelis now have a green light to clear the swamp in Southern Lebanon. What remains to be decided is what force will maintain the status quo once Israel withdraws back inside its borders.

This is the diplomacy now in motion.

RBT

*****

VC Reader Catches Party of God (Hezbollah) Lies:

Reader Victor Steinbok writes:

A Financial Times piece has a couple of interesting contradictions that are worth noting.

"Lebanon’s Hizbollah movement on Thursday denied that a massive Israeli strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut had hit any of its leaders." vs. "The Shia fundamentalist group took reporters on a visit to its devastated stronghold of Haret Hreik in south Beirut but did not provide access to an adjacent neighbourhood where Israel said it targeted a 'leadership bunker.'"

And, "A Hizbollah spokesman ridiculed Israeli claims that it had severely damaged the group’s military capabilities in nine days of attacks, in which more than 300 people have been killed – the overwhelming majority civilians – according to Lebanese sources." vs. "A Lebanese military expert also said he doubted that Israel had made much headway against the group. 'Hizbollah has no visible personnel infrastructure on the ground. They are organised in cells, they look like civilians, they move fast and they are trained to hide.'"

And, "In the south, Hizbollah fighters were engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli soldiers on the border for a second day. The group’s spokesman in Beirut said this underlined that Israeli claims that only military targets were hit, were clearly wrong. 'We have no fighters here in Beirut, they are all in the south, on the front.'" vs. "On the edge of the bombed-out southern neighbourhoods of Beirut, some Hizbollah supporters have remained. One expressed his pride in the movement. “We are only a small group standing up to a mighty nation. I hope that they will come in with ground troops so that we can face them."

So, let's take count: Hezbollah denies that the massive attack did any damage to their leadership and infrastructure, yet they refuse to show the actual damage; they claim that the casualties are mostly civilian, yet they [sic, it was a "Lebanese military expert"] also confirm that "they look like civilians" so it's easy for an outside observer to mistake dead Hezbollah troopers for civilians; and they claim that they have no fighters in Beirut, yet their supporters in Beirut are goading on the Israelis into a combat.

Read More

*****

[From Chester (AKA Josh Manchester) of The Adventures of Chester and War and Foreign Affairs up at Tech Central Station]

Shaken and Stirred

The US invasion of Iraq has so shaken and stirred the Middle East that some exceptionally strange things are happening. More importantly, these things unequivocally favor the US in influencing the outcome of the Israeli-Hezbollah War now taking place in Lebanon.

What sorts of strange things? Well, consider an Arab League meeting in Cairo over the weekend, where a fight of sorts broke out. Jed Babbin described it best:

"This meeting began with the Lebanese foreign minister Fawzi Salloukh proposing a resolution condemning Israel's military action, supporting Lebanon's 'right to resist occupation by all legitimate means' ... The Lebanese draft also called on Israel to release all Lebanese prisoners and supported Lebanon's right to 'liberate them by all legitimate means.' ... The Syrian foreign minister, Walid Moallem, strongly supported Lebanon and Hizballah. But an historic obstacle was raised that blocked the Lebanese endorsement of terrorism.

"The Saudi foreign minister, al-Faisal, led a triumvirate including Egypt and Jordan that, according to the AP report, was '...criticizing the guerilla group's actions, calling them 'unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts.'' Faisal said, 'These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we simply cannot accept them.' . . . The Arab leaders are frightened that the acts of the terrorists they have coddled for decades might have consequences for them. And they are very frightened of what Iran may do next.'

Read More

Update:

Kobayashi Maru has a similar opinion.

Austin Bay on what the Israelis may be up to in cleaning out Hezbollah bunkers.

Donald Sensing at Winds of Change, Is Tomorrow Invastion Day?

Captain Ed of Captain's Quarters on, The Coming Invasion

And here's Hot Air on the enemy's war of information

Kersher Talk's View

As always continue to watch Pajamas Media for updates on the war.

Update II:

HT Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran

Michael Ledeen has this must read eye threading piece that puts these moves into perspective at NRO:

A Window of Opportunity

9/11 happened when Osama bin Laden looked at us, and thought we were ready to be had. We were politically divided, and squabbling over everything. We clearly were not prepared to take casualties in direct combat. The newly elected president seemed unable to make a tough decision. And so Osama attacked, expecting to deliver a decisive blow to our national will, expecting we would turn tail and run, as we had in Somalia, and expecting he would then be free to concentrate his energies on the defeat of local apostates, the creation of his caliphate, and the organization of Muslim revenge for the catastrophes of past centuries.

[...]

inally, there was the Divine Message, the promise that the End of Days would soon be upon mankind, and the Hidden Imam would emerge from the bottom of his well, lead the believers to victory, and command the planet. The description of the moment of his return was well known: a time of chaos and suffering, that could be accelerated by the faithful if they were brave enough.

[...]

It now lies to President Bush to decide. We must hope that he is not charmed. If he can now recall what he said after 9/11, that the world must make the stark choice of being with us or against us, and that those who support the terrorists will be treated as terrorists themselves, then the deadly logic of their failed attack will close around the throats of the terror masters. The battle against Hezbollah is part of the broader war, as the mullahs well understood when they unleashed Nasrallah and Mughniyah against the Israelis. Israel is now conducting that battle; it is up to us to prosecute the rest of the war.

[...]

Now is the time to tell our soldiers in Iraq that “hot pursuit” is okay, that the terrorist training camps on both sides of Iraq are legitimate targets, to be attacked in self-defense. Now is the time to tell the Iraqi government to come forward with the abundant evidence of Iranian evil-doing, and that we will support a fight against the mullahs’ foot soldiers in Iraq. These actions will signal the next stage of the war against the terror masters, which is the vigorous support of the pro-democracy forces in Syria and Iran.

It is a wondrous window of opportunity. As so often in our history, it was opened by our enemies. Let’s go for it.

Now, please. It may not open again for quite a while.

A MUST READ!

Update III:

HT Hot Air. The great Allahpundit has this assessment:

Why Hezbollah attacked when it did

And Dr. Walid Phares has this historical perspective and analysis at The Counterterrorism Blog:

HIZBOLLAH’S IRANIAN WAR IN LEBANON

And from Alexandra von Maltzanat at All Things Beautiful on Condi Rice:

"One Foot In Terror One Foot In Politics"

[...]

Coming back to the stellar performance by Secretary Rice, this is what true leadership can achieve, and should achieve. This is a lesson for us all, irrespective whether on the world stage of politics or at home and amongst our friends: When we stand up for our friends and express our support unequivocally, others will follow. If we don't, we inadvertently deliver our friends to their detractors.

In this instance, they are the lying, deceiving agents who are relentlessly pursuing the destruction of Israel. I say, One-Nil against Jihadist Islam, as we fasten our seat belts with Ed Morrissey, and prepare for the 'coming invasion'. The Democrats are still confused with their terminology: when terrorists attack Israel, it is an act of moral equivalence, when Israel attempts to defend itself, it is an act of genocide. Yeah right.

Read More

Michelle Malkin has this VLOG on Hezbollah in the US and that Islamofascism is everyone problem:

American Jihad - Jihadis in your neighborhood

HT The Belmont Club

This just in from The Belmont Club.

RBT

The Lebanese Border

Haaretz reports that:

Thousands of Israeli troops are operating in south Lebanon where they are targeting Hezbollah positions. Among their activities, they are searching for tunnels dug by Hezbollah militants. According to the army, Hezbollah fighters have taken refuge inside these tunnels - often dug under homes in villages - along with their rockets, and that they occasionally emerge to fire one into Israel.

On July 19, this battle was described as "shaping the border", which contained bunkers up to 120 feet deep. Ynet described them.

[...]

Read More

Playing the Israel Card

Amir Taheri, The Jerusalem Post:

'When nothing else works, there is always Israel!" This is how the late Egyptian journalist Lutfi al-Khuli liked to describe the motto of Arab radicalism decades ago. The analysis was apt because the Arab obsession with Israel did work on countless occasions.

Despots used Israel as an excuse for their brutal rule. Corrupt leaders adopted an anti-Israel rhetoric as a diversion from their misdeeds. Confused intellectuals used Israel as an object of hate to hide their ineptitude.

[...]

Ahmadinejad is under pressure to respond to a carrots-and-stick offer by the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany. He knows that a positive response to the offer could mark the end for his strategy of extending the Islamic Republic's influence throughout the Middle East. At the same time he knows that a rejection of the package could isolate his regime, bring about international sanctions and weaken his already shaky rule inside Iran.

To avoid that choice Ahmadinejad decided to play the Israel card. This meant moving the Hizbullah pawn that the Islamic Republic created in Lebanon in 1982 and has financed, trained and armed for the past quarter-century.

It is no accident that during the past 10 weeks arms supplies to Hizbullah have increased dramatically. In the same period the Islamic Republic's defense minister has met with Hizbullah leaders and commanders on at least two occasions.

[...]

Read More

HT Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran

Dan Darling is a counterterrorism consultant and student of Dr. Michael Ledeen.

RBT

*****
Raad Warriors

Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard:

AS ISRAEL CONTINUES to come to grips with Hezbollah's missile strike on the northern Israeli city of Haifa, it is important to fully appreciate the implications of this attack. While Hezbollah, like other terrorist and guerrilla organizations worldwide, has long been known to possess a number of Katyushas with a range of up to 10-20 kilometers, the two missiles fired at Haifa are believed to be Iranian-produced Raad-1s, which have an estimated range of as much as 150 kilometers. While attacks by Katyusha rockets (like their Qassem counterparts that are favored by Hamas) have long been a problem for northern Israel, the grim implications of the use of Raad-1s against Haifa were best spelled out in a headline by Ynet News: "2 million Israelis under threat." The reach of Hezbollah's missiles, once believed to be confined to the northern border, has now spread to encompass the vast majority of Israel. READ MORE

The introduction of Raad missiles should also clear up any lingering doubts among analysts as to the Iranian complicity in the latest violence. While the relationship between Hezbollah and the senior echelons of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) have long been clear enough to make it the quintessential textbook definition of state-sponsored terrorism, the increasingly sophisticated weapons being used by the terrorist group leave little doubt that Iran is complicit in the recent violence.

[...]

But, Israeli officials say Hizballah also maintains a supply of 220mm and even larger rockets from Iran, a "strategic threat" capable of hitting targets in Haifa--20 miles inside Israel--and beyond. "They can target all of the north and go as far afield as Haifa, threatening one million inhabitants of Israel. It must be considered by Israel's leaders at all times," the Israeli military intelligence official says.

[...]

It is worth noting that Israel and the United States share a common foe with regard to Iran. For instance, as recently as June 23 the Washington Post quoted General George Casey as saying "We are quite confident that the Iranians, through their covert special operations forces, are providing weapons, IED [Improvised Explosive Devices] technology and training to Shia extremist groups in Iraq, the training being conducted in Iran and in some cases probably in Lebanon through their surrogates." Casey went on to say that the Iranians were "using surrogates to conduct terrorist operations in Iraq, both against us and against the Iraqi people." The extremist groups being referenced by Casey undoubtedly refer at least in part to Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army, members of which have caught a bloody swath of sectarian violence through Baghdad and the surrounding areas in recent weeks. Americans would do well to remember these facts as Israel confronts Hezbollah and their Iranian allies.

Read it All

OK while the carnage of the latest round of fighting in the Middle East goes on, here's a little humor.

If you ever had the experience of attempting a washing machine repair, you will appreciate this RBT's comment on his recent repair work over at:

Fixitnow.com

Samurai Appliance Repairman
Kicking Appliance Butt All Over the Globe!
Appliance Repair Wisdom for all Ages

RBT

HT Omar from Iraq The Model

Omar says more clearly what RBT has been saying for several years about President MAD and others are fanatical cultists pursuing a religious quest to hasten the return of the 12th Immam. Further they will do anything to prepare the way including starting the War of Armageddon.

RBT

*****

Just new banners, or war drums?

A few days ago we mentioned that we tend to believe that this ongoing war in-geographically-Lebanon is not only about Hizbollah and Israel; that it is probably the first stage of a wider regional conflict that is going to extend far beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. What I want to add today is that it is not wise to try to deal with it in the same way previous conflicts were dealt with, why? Because this conflict is not like any of the previous ones.

What we must realize here is the involvement of the theological (mythological) element in this particular conflict which is also the reason why this conflict has the potential to expand into full-scale regional war.

It is true that religion had always been playing a central role in the numerous chapters of the conflict between the Muslims and the West but this time there's a totally different theological belief that is being used by Iran to provoke and direct this war; I think the best way to say it is that we are about to see Iran launch the mullahs' version of an 'Armageddon'. I know this may sound absurd and maybe some of you are thinking no one could possibly be thinking that way but remember, I am telling you what extremist theocrats seem to be planning for and logic has very little space in the mullahs' way of thinking.

I'm not going to claim I know exactly what Hizbollah's or Hamas's hidden motives are because I don't live there but I know about those of the regime in Iran and its arm in Iraq; both Ahmedinejad and Sadr are devout believers in the 'Savior Imam' of Shia Islam who is the 12th grandson of prophet Mohammed, also known by the name 'Imam Mehdi' hence the name of Sadr's militias 'the Mehdi Army'. I must point out though that some factions of Sunni Islam also believe in the rise of the Imam but they have their own different version of the story.

Both Ahmedinejad and Sadr believe it is their duty to pave the way and prepare the ground for the rise of the Imam whose rise, according to their branch of Shia Islam, requires certain conditions and a sequence of certain events; the story is too long to discuss in one post so I'll just move on to offer my observations…

We are seeing some signs here that make us think that Iran and its tools in Iraq are trying to provoke the rise of the imam through forcing the signs they believe should be associated with that rise. One of the things that do not feel right is the sudden appearance of new banners and writings on the walls carrying religious messages talking specifically of imam Mehdi. These messages are getting abundant in Baghdad and in particular in the eastern part of the capital where Sadr militias are dominant and a special number can be seen in the area of the interior ministry complex.

The interesting part is that these banners appeared within less than 24 hours after Hizbollah kidnapped the Israeli soldiers. Coincidence? I don't think so.

The messages on the banners are sort of new too and sound different from the ones we're used to read, I've took photos of two of them that read as follows:

"By renouncing sin and by integration for the sake of afterlife we become the best soldiers to our leader and savior the Mehdi" "integration" here sounds meaningless in the sentence but it's just one of those words the Sadr likes to use! And, "Everyone gets power from weapons and money but the loyal to the savior get their pride from almighty God"

I do have photos of some of such banners but I couldn't upload them because my connection isn't stable today.

You will see when I add the photos that these are written on white cloth instead of the traditional black, red or green of religious banners. I asked a friend of mine who's aware of the dates of Shia religious occasions to check if there was one of these occasions around these days but the answer was negative.

We pointed out in an earlier post about the organic connections between the tools of Iran in Iraq and Lebanon and how Sadr was following Nesrallah's steps and I won't be exaggerating if I said that Sadr is even using the same structural pattern of Hizbollah for his militia, not to mention that Sadr's "foreign relations bureau" is based in Beirut!

What I'm interested in finding is whether Sadr is going to jump in and join this war and whether Iran's agenda is going to include creating more chaos in the "Arab" depth to keep Tehran safe…

Threatening with such wide-spread chaos is embarrassing to the world and especially to America and Europe and will probably move the latter powers to try to contain the crisis and prevent it from taking a wider scope than it occupies now and I'm afraid this could make the world look for symptomatic treatments instead of cures.

Those banners above represent an ominous sign and I'd like to say again that one should prepare for the worst from the very unstable mixture of religion and policy.

I went to a guy who knows quite a lot about this salvation war so to speak and asked him if the texts mention anything about the timing of the war and whether it's supposed to begin before or after the rise of the Imam and the answer was "After" but he added that chaos and rampant violence in the region are supposed to be among the signs and that the main battle would be "lead by the Imam himself".

The thing is that we can't be sure that they are going to play by book because throughout the Islamic history rulers employed what people consider divine texts to remain in power and make people obey them; and they did this either by twisting the texts through slanted interpretations or by making up the text as in adding thousands of texts that were claimed to be the sayings of the prophet. Here we're most likely going to see a new maneuver and I expect that the "imminent" arrival of the Imam is going to be announced through the Mumahidoon (those who pave the way for the Imam) and that's what Sadr and followers describe themselves and that's the word they use for a title of their website. That's if they didn't claim they were receiving messages from the Imam via a messenger.

All previous wars between Israel and Arabs were of a pan-nationalist nature and used feelings of Arabism to push the people to war. Of course religion had a role too but now religion is going to push Arabism aside and be the dominant element in Iran's planned war because of the failure of pan-nationalism to retain its influence in the region after a long history of failures. Iran's dreams in exporting the Islamic revolution were stopped by the once strong pan-nationalism in last quarter of the 20th century but today we're facing a renewed project of exporting the Islamic revolution in an attempt to fill-and taking advantage of-the vacuum left by the fading pan Arab nationalism… And with liberalism still not strong enough to face such a challenge, I think the future of the region is in big danger.

Link to Iraq The Model

This just in Dr. Rusty Shakleford saying his blog The Jawa Report has been blocked in India.

RBT

*****

My website has been banned in India.

India has banned a number of websites by domain, but has only singled out 11 websites by name, including this one. Among American websites, all are connected in some way to The Jawa Report.

Why did India ban this website? And what is the larger meaning of this action? We have a post about it here. Whether you agree with my analysis or not, we, those who have been singled out by the world's largest democracy as targets of censorship, could use the support right now.

My post: http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/183986.php

Indians have already begun to protest this action by their government. We hope you will do the same.

PS-My trackbacks are not working right now, so please e-mail me so I can link you.

--
Dr. Rusty Shackleford
www.mypetjawa.mu.nu

HT YNet via Roger L. Simon

IAF foils rocket transports from Syria

While army continues to strike Hizbullah, limit its weapons resources, outside groups trying to rearm group. IAF manages to bomb trucks transporting missiles from Syria. IDF Maj.-Gen. Eisenkot: These rockets belong to Syrian army
Hanan Greenberg
Although Hizbullah has suffered a harsh blow from Israeli air force strikes which took out a good percentage of their available weapons, Syria was continuing to smuggle arms into Lebanon to rearm the group, IDF Operations Branch Head Major General Gadi Eisenkot said during a press briefing Tuesday.

Thus far, the IAF managed to intercept a number of trucks transporting rockets from Syria to Hizbullah, including trucks laden with the 220mm-diameter rockets with warheads like the one that hit the Haifa train depot Monday, claiming eight lives. Maj.-Gen. Eisenkot said he would be very surprised if official elements in Syria were unaware of these transports.
[...]

Read More

A must view from Michael Yon:

I interviewed an Israeli television broadcaster in Tel Aviv, Yigal Zur, to get his take on the escalating conflict between Hezbollah, Hamas and his country in the past week. The full interview is up. Yigal is funny and fascinating, and his take is worth a listen.

Link Here

and Yon has this excellent global view on Jihad:

Link Here

HT Charles Krauthammer via Captain's Quarters

A Golden Opportunity

Rather than look at the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict as a major disaster and a failure, Charles Krauthammer sees it -- correctly -- as a golden opportunity. In the Washington Post this morning, Krauthammer puts the conflict in its proper perspective, and shows why the US should not rush Israel into a cease-fire without having achieved its military objectives first:

Every important party in the region and in the world, except the radical Islamists in Tehran and their clients in Damascus, wants Hezbollah disarmed and removed from south Lebanon so that it is no longer able to destabilize the peace of both Lebanon and the broader Middle East. ...

Everyone agrees it must be done. But who to do it? No one. The Lebanese are too weak. The Europeans don't invade anyone. After its bitter experience of 20 years ago, the United States has a Lebanon allergy. And Israel could not act out of the blue because it would immediately have been branded the aggressor and forced to retreat.

Hence the golden, unprecedented opportunity. Hezbollah makes a fatal mistake. It crosses the U.N.-delineated international frontier to attack Israel, kill soldiers and take hostages. This aggression is so naked that even Russia joins in the Group of Eight summit communique blaming Hezbollah for the violence and calling for the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty in the south.

But only one country has the capacity to do the job. That is Israel, now recognized by the world as forced into this fight by Hezbollah's aggression.

[...]

[RBT here's the key point]

Only two questions remain: Israel's will and America's wisdom. Does Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have the courage to do what is so obviously necessary? And will Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's upcoming peace trip to the Middle East force a premature cease-fire that spares her the humiliation of coming home empty-handed but prevents precisely the kind of decisive military outcome that would secure the interests of Israel, Lebanon, the moderate Arabs and the West?


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HT NY Sun via Atlas at Atlas Shrugs

RBT read elsewhere that the attack on the Israeli warship was actually a missile and not a UAV but in anycase this required a high level of sophistication. The question is whether Iran would have released this advanced technology to their proxy, Hezballah, without their agents being present to assist and operate it?

RBT

*****
Hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are on the ground in Lebanon fighting Israel, security sources say.

"I have no doubt whatsoever that they are there and operating some of the equipment," an Arab diplomatic source told The New York Sun yesterday.

Another foreign source, based in Washington, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps contingent in Lebanon is based in Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley. He said the troops usually number a few dozen, but that the size of the force increased in connection with the hostilities that have broken out between Israel and Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, over the past week.

The sources said the Iranians had directly operated a radar-guided C–802 missile that Iran acquired from Communist China and that hit an Israeli navy missile boat off the coast of Lebanon on Friday, killing four Israeli seamen.

"This was a direct message to the Israelis that we are fighting the Iranians here," the Arab diplomatic source said.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's mission in Lebanon includes keeping custody of Zalzal missiles and drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles. A report by an Israel-based research group, the Intelligence & Terrorism Information Center, identifies the units of Iran's Revolutionary Guard "deployed and active in Lebanon" as the "Al-Quds Force." The Lebanon-based Iranian force "provides military guidance and support for terrorist attacks against Israel," the report says.

[...]

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DoctorZin reports, 7.16.2006:

Ahmadinejad sought Arab support for the attacks on Israel?

* RIA Novosti reported that just before the attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel. Ahmadinejad addressed a high-profile Muslim forum held in Tehran saying "the main issue faced by the Islamic world is Israel's existence. The Islamic countries should mobilize their efforts to do away with this issue," and that "all the conditions for eliminating the Zionist regime" are currently in place."

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HT Iraq the Model via Austin Bay

I saw this excellent piece over the weekend. Just saw over at Austin Bay's this is now in the WSJ Online Edition as an OP/ED piece.

RBT

*****

No More Half-Solutions
Iran is the cause of chaos in Lebanon and Iraq.

BY MOHAMMED FADHIL
Tuesday, July 18, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

BAGHDAD--In spite of what we are facing here every day I find myself, just like many others, so attached to following what's going on between Israel and Lebanon and that's mostly because of the close resemblance between the two cases.

In both cases we see a weak government suffering to control a powerful militia that is challenging the will of the rest of the country and engaging in a proxy war making the people suffer the results of regional conflicts that in no way can benefit their country.

The other reason why I'm closely following this ongoing crisis is that the powers involved in this conflict between Lebanon and Israel are closely connected to the powers fighting in Iraq and we here believe that the battle over there will have an impact on the situation here in one way or another.

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Read it All

HT Atlas of Atlas Shrugs

For those still wondering what drives the Jihadists and why nothing the West has to offer in the form of appeasement or compromise will deter them from their quest, this post at Atlas Shrugs is a must read!

RBT

*****

Apocalyptic Muslim Jew-Hatred

Andrew Bostom, one of America's finest minds we have on Islam and the Jihad reveals more truths from the Koran in today's American Thinker. You must read it all

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Read it All!

HT Spook86 at In From the Cold

Iran's Gambit

It remains the $64,000 question in the current Middle East conflict? What is Iran up to, and why did it "suddenly" send its proxies from Hamas and Hizballah into war against Israel.

More than a few analysts, including Edward Luttwak, believe that Tehran is looking for a diversion. With a looming deadline to respond to western proposals on its nuclear programs, Iran decided to change the subject, by launching large-scale attacks against Israel. Presto, the international community is now focused on events in Israel and Lebanon, and Iran's nuclear efforts are out of the spotlight, at least for now. This diversion may coincide with a particularly important phase of the nuclear program, which means that western ISR assets normally allocated for Iran are being diverted to cover the Levant region. Less coverage of Iranian targets means a greater probability that Iran could complete (or conceal) sensitive activities, with less chance of detection.

But Iran's motivations go beyond creating a sideshow or diversion. By formenting conflict in the Levant, Tehran is attempting to affirm its credentials as the logical hegemon in the Persian Gulf region and beyond. Sending Hamas and Hizballah on their murderous missions, Iran is demonstrating its ability to launch potentially crippling attacks against Israel, something that massed Arab armies were unable to do in four major wars. And, by giving major weapons systems to the terrorists, Iran has created a mechanism for striking at the heart of Israel, a development that has serious security and psychological implications for the relatively new Olmert government.

[...]

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