HT Iraq the Model (ITM)

Interesting discussion from Mohammend of ITM regarding the importance of the US military remaining in Iraq and staying the course.

ITM is a political blog from inside Iraq.

RBT

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Sticking to the essence of the plan…

I've been reading and hearing a lot about options "other than democracy" for Iraq being considered by Washington.
I couldn't find the time to search for the original report but I found this recent article that mentions the report and comments on it:

But last week came the new nugget: an anonymous "military affairs expert" attended a White House briefing and reported: "Senior administration officials have acknowledged to me that they are considering alternatives other than democracy. Everybody in the administration is being quite circumspect, but you can sense their own concern that this is drifting away from democracy."

Most interpretations for the anonymous statement expect those alternatives to be in the form of a coup replacing the current government in Iraq with a puppet government loyal to America and lead by a new dictator.

Since the whole story is built around a statement from an anonymous expert and since no clear scenario has been provided, I'm going to offer the Iraqi version of the story that also comes from anonymous experts but with a scenario that looks reasonably formulated from a structural point of view. The report was published on the Iraqi website of Sot al-Iraq, a website run by Iraqi intellectual mostly in exile.

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We the Iraqis should tolerate the results of our choices and this is a key point in the process of learning and practicing that seems to be our only means to make progress, so the next four years are going to be an important lesson for us on the importance of careful choice making and the American troops can help us finish this lesson by assisting the people and the government (its moderate reasonable powers) in reducing the influence of armed militias and disarming the community. This process will be no doubt long and tiresome but it's necessary since we have gone this far.

There's also another act, other than military force, that can support and empower democracy and pluralism, this is the free world's mission to support patriotic liberal powers in Iraq. These are the powers that radical and fascist powers want to deter and neutralize through assassinations, intimidation, Takfir or accusations with treason, all backed by effective propaganda machines funded by outside parties.

To make it simple, in addition to the presence of military forces we also need to garner all kinds of support to the liberal, secular, truly pro-democracy powers. It is no secret that Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria support extremists of both sects so why not America and other friends of democratic Iraq offer grater, or at least equal, support for the liberals/moderates?

In the brutal war the world is fighting against terror and extremism, many of the rules of engagement whether political or military need to be reconsidered and maybe changed from what had been known for decades and as long as the enemy is striking below the belt and fears or respects no referee, a new and improved policy should be adopted when it comes to offering support to allies.

This way the process can be lengthy, boring and difficult but success will be certain. Of course there are no guarantees that results will change much for the best within only four years from now but definitely extremism will have the shorter end of the stick then and positive outcomes can be even further accelerated if the world took stricter measures to neutralize the hotbeds of extremism in Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

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HT Kobayashi Maru

Thinking Out Loud on U.S./Israeli Strategy vs. Iran, Syria and Hizbollah

It has lately become fashionable among conservatives to ask what on earth the president was thinking in designing, agreeing to, allowing or encouraging (take your pick) a truce in Lebanon. Why not let the Israelis continue to roll?

"How", a reader asks in an e-mail, "could they have been so stupid as to let Hizbollah win by cease fire? Are they just trying to show us, or someone, that this #$%* [UN talkie-talk] does not work?"

Hizbollah has not won. I intuit a much bigger strategy building here. Bush and his cohorts are not stupid, nor are they playing the patsy. It's easy to forget: the Israelis acquiesced to the truce. Had they done so as a result of U.S. strong-arm tactics, we would have heard much more about it. Several things were gained here, among them:

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Update:

More from Kobayashi Maru

Hizballah in Lebanon - The Larger Context
I stumbled across this superbly cogent piece that echoes some of the points I was making yesterday on the meaning of the conflict in Lebanon, on Iran and on Israeli strategy more generally. It's by Dr. Raanan Gissin, a former senior advisor to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Dated today, it's up on the website of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

Israel now faces the "special forces" of the Iranian military, the best guerilla warfare units, in front-line positions. The whole concept of how they operate on the battlefield and in public diplomacy is directed by Iran. Over the last twenty-five years Iran has gradually created a global network, first forming an axis with Syria and then building up Hizballah, with Lebanon serving as a regional theater, part of Iran's global design in its confrontation with the West.

Israel had been operating on the assumption that Hizballah was a terrorist organization like Hamas or the PLO that had to be neutralized in order to bring about stability. But these are not merely terrorist gangs. This is an army - a well-trained, well-organized, and ideologically indoctrinated guerilla army - and Israel did not make that point strongly enough at the beginning of the war, neither to the world, nor to itself.

The conflict with Hizballah in Lebanon is a testing ground - like Spain in 1936 - for weapons, tactics, and doctrine of how Iran is going to fight the war when it comes to confront the West. Hizballah in south Lebanon with its 13,000 missiles represents a front-line position of Iran. Not surprisingly, Nasrallah reportedly found refuge in the Iranian embassy in Beirut when his underground headquarters came under Israel Air Force bombardment...

The globalization of terror under the auspices of Iran is a much more formidable and more clear and present danger than the Iranian nuclear threat. The minute the Iranians get nuclear weapons, they may not immediately send them against Israel on their missiles. But this will give them the kind of protection and deterrence to use the methods that they're using now in Lebanon. For instance, if there was an Iranian terrorist coup in Egypt, the world would have to weigh any reaction differently if Iran had nuclear weapons.

The Iranians are coming, and we better read the writing on the wall. It is not in Arabic; it is in Persian, and it is still not too late to learn. [emphasis added]

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HT Wizbang

Iran Says It's Planning a Surprise Regarding its Nuclear Program

From the Jerusalem Post:

A senior official in Teheran said Wednesday that in the next few days, a "surprise" was expected regarding Iran's nuclear program, Al-Jazeera reported.

Teheran's apparent refusal to suspend uranium enrichment set the stage for a showdown at the UN Security Council later this month.

This business about a possible Iranian nuclear surprise is even more disconcerting when we hear that some within the Bush Administration and the Republican Party are concerned that our intelligence community is downplaying the threat Iran poses to the US. From tomorrow's New York Times:

Some senior Bush administration officials and top Republican lawmakers are voicing anger that American spy agencies have not issued more ominous warnings about the threats that they say Iran presents to the United States.

Some policy makers have accused intelligence agencies of playing down Iran’s role in Hezbollah’s recent attacks against Israel and overestimating the time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

Iran doesn't have to make a nuclear weapon. It can buy one:

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Update:

HT Allahpundit from Hot Air

Iran promises a “surprise” related to its nuke program in the next few days (Update: Iran “flipped the world the bird”)

posted at 8:14 pm on August 23, 2006 by Allahpundit

I love surprises! Maybe they’ve had a change of heart and decided to unilaterally suspend their enrichment program for the sake of peace in the Middle East.

Or maybe I’m going to have to eat the biggest plate of shinola in human history. Which, if so, would be the very least of our worries.

Goldstein wonders if western pressure on Israel to lay off Hezbollah wasn’t designed with this scenario in mind, as a goodwill gesture to make the other members of the Security Council more amenable to sanctions on Iran when that issue came to a head. If so, it was an exceptionally naive move:

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Update II:

HT Dr. Zin of Regime Change Iran

Iran to announce nuclear 'breakthrough'

Iran will soon announce an atomic breakthrough, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported today, a day after the country responded to an offer aimed at resolving a nuclear standoff.

'This great scientific achievement is the fruit of a long-term research project ... It will be formally announced by a top official,' Mehr quoted an informed source as saying. READ MORE

'The announcement will highlight Iran's mastery of different areas in nuclear science and will reinforce Iran's position as a nuclear country,' the report said.

Amid a fanfare of publicity, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced in April that Iran had successfully enriched uranium to 3.5 pct and mastered the nuclear fuel cycle.

The United States suspects Iran is using a civilian nuclear programme to secretly develop atomic weapons, but Tehran says it only wants to produce electricity.


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HT The American Thinker

The air traveling public when safety counts is willing to discard PCism.

RBT

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A victory for passengers

There are those who seek to portray the refusal of British holidaymakers to allow two suspiciously acting Arabs on a flight as a victory for terrorists.

The truth is, however, that the exact opposite is the case. This was a clear victory for people who felt threatened and took steps to protect themselves.

Do you know what a victory for terrorists would have been? To allow the dodgy-looking pair on board and then wonder in fear whether they are going to blow up the plane in mid-flight. The holidaymakers did the right and rational thing – they removed the perceived threat and traveled home in peace.

They have also put the British government – which still stubbornly refuses to profile Arabs and Muslims – on notice. It will either do what is needed to protect its citizens or it will face a rebellion among the population. The travelers on that flight are to be applauded, because they showed us that we do not have to cower in fear when our governments refuse to do what is necessary to protect us.

The mutiny on that Manchester-bound flight was a stinging rebuke to a government which is not doing enough to protect its citizens and a sharp blow to terrorists who hope to exploit that government’s weakness to carry out their murderous plots. The passengers acted and their message was clear: We do not appreciate being blown up by Muslims in our midst, and we are not going to put up with government-sponsored multicultural madness anymore.

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HT Atlas of Atlas Shrugs

Atlas just put this up. Slow blogging last several days. Mother-in-law in residence for visit.

RBT

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Ahmadinejad Expected to Announce Iran's "Nuclear Birth"

President Ahmadinejad Expected to Announce Iran's "Nuclear Birth" From MEMRI

The Iranian news service Al-Borz, which is known to have access to sources in the Iranian government, predicted that on the first anniversary of Iranian President Ahmadinejad's government, in late August 2006, Ahmadinejad is expected to announce what the news service called Iran's "nuclear birth."

In addition, an August 23, 2006 article about Iran's reply to the incentives proposal, that was posted on the Iranian Foreign Ministry-affiliated website www.tehrantimes.com , implied that Iran's nuclear technology had already reached the point of no return: "... If the West is seeking to impede Iran's nuclear industry, it should realize that Iran has passed this stage."(1)

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